Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again surprised observers by coming close to winning the Turkish presidential election in the first round, defying the polls that favored opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. As the stage is set for the second round on May 28, analysts argue that Kilicdaroglu's path to victory is extremely narrow.
Kilicdaroglu's "finish it" campaign slogan in the first round spoke volumes about his strategy. By uniting six different parties under his leadership and positioning himself as the antithesis of Erdogan in both style and substance, Kilicdaroglu aimed to secure a decisive victory. However, Erdogan almost achieved that by winning 49.51% of the vote, compared to Kilicdaroglu's 44.8%.
Consequently, Kilicdaroglu's message for the second round was notably different as he urged his supporters not to despair on Twitter the following day.
Erdogan's political acumen has repeatedly dashed the hopes of Turkey's opposition. In the previous presidential elections in 2018, Muharrem Ince campaigned energetically for Kilicdaroglu's Republican People's Party (CHP), leading some Western observers to believe in his chances of unseating Erdogan. Nevertheless, Erdogan emerged victorious in the first round.
Erdogan's appeal to his millions of supporters goes beyond the economic growth achieved during the first part of his rule. Many socially conservative Muslim voters in the Anatolian heartlands view Erdogan as their champion in the culture wars that have characterized Turkish politics since the establishment of the Turkish nation-state in 1923 when Mustafa Kemal Ataturk severed the profound links between Islam and politics.
Although Erdogan initially positioned himself against the nationalist rhetoric of his Kemalist opponents and reached out to Turkey's large Kurdish minority, he has embraced nationalism since 2015, aligning with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) after the ceasefire with the Kurdish militant group PKK ended.
According to Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the director of the German Marshall Fund's Ankara bureau, Erdogan's exploitation of nationalism has been highly successful in these elections. Despite Kilicdaroglu's conciliatory approach aimed at reducing polarization, Erdogan skillfully repeated baseless claims that Kilicdaroglu was "partnering with the PKK" and was a "puppet of the West."
Howard Eissenstat, a Turkey specialist, acknowledged that the opposition ran a strong campaign but struggled to overcome Erdogan's advantages in media control and state institutions. Erdogan effectively used nationalist rhetoric in the fight against terrorism.
Erdogan's presidential power has aided his reelection campaign, given the government's control over 90% of the national media and the curtailment of independent press freedom, resulting in Turkey ranking 165th out of 180 countries in the World Press Freedom Index.
Erdogan possesses inherent advantages due to his control over key institutions, the media, electoral boards, security services, and the courts, not merely as an incumbent. These advantages led the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to describe the first round of elections as "unfair."
All these factors continue to play a role as Erdogan seeks the additional 0.49% of the vote needed for reelection.
According to Eissenstat, Kilicdaroglu's team faces an arduous battle as their base is demoralized by the near victory and the excessive enthusiasm expressed before the May 14 election.
Unluhisarcikli shares a similar view, stating that while Kilicdaroglu theoretically has a path to victory
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